Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Requiem to the Ancient Egypt Forum of Egyptsearch Forums

Up to June 2017, a significant Afrocentric Forum/Discussion Group was the Ancient Egypt Forum of Egyptsearch Forums. This forum greatly influenced the study of the ancient history of Blacks Worldwide.

 Posters such as Iron Lion, Mike 111, Ish Gebor, Egmond Codfried,  Marc Washington, Narmerthoth, Zarahan- aka Enrique Cardova, xyyman ,  Amun-Ra The Ultimate, and the lioness Inc.. During the lifetime of the Ancient Egypt forum we had lively debates and photo essays that have influenced the study of Ancient Black Civilizations. Iron Lion, Mike 111, Ish Gebor, Egmond Codfried,  Marc Washington, Narmerthoth  and myself (Clyde Winters) have never been ashamed to admit that they were Afrocentric Researchers.

 Iron Lion made the public aware of the Muurish/Moorish history of Black Americans. It was Egmond Codfried and Marc Washington that highlighted the history of Blacks in Europe. Due to the research of Marc we became aware of the fact that Europeans only recently entered western Europe from Central Asia. In addition, Marc made wonderful Posters that summarized aspects of Black history.
Image result for Marc Washington Egyptsearch

Image result for Marc Washington Egyptsearch

Mike 111 and myself made wonderful photo essays relating to Black history. These photos provide iconographic evidence of the role of Blacks through every period in Black history. Mike has a beautiful website where you can find out any aspect of ancient Black History:

It was fun debating lioness Inc. Debating lioness Inc., was fun because this poster included Eurocentrists around the world who would debate various themes to attack Afrocentrism. We knew it was more than one lioness because post would be published almost 24 hours and no single person could do this. The present poster using the lioness name is very ignorant.

Ish Gebor and Zarahan have provided the public with up-to-date resources to illuminate Black history.  Narmerthoth has provided us with the latest ideas about melanin  and business issues. All of these post will be greatly missed.

Today the Ancient Egypt forum is dead. The moderator has suspended some of the Afrocentric researchers that formerly posted at the site, and does not allow the posting of photo essays  which he  claims is spamming.   Although the site is dead its legacy will live on. Many recent books relating to ancient Black History in the past five years have photos that first appeared at Ancient Egypt.

Indeed, the Ancient Egypt Forum is dead--but it will be fondly remembered.

Tuesday, July 4, 2017

Why Bayes Law and Genetic Admixture Programs can not Accurately Access African-Eurasian Admixture

Many geneticists claim they use Bayesian statistics to determine the phylogeography of African and Afro-American populations,  "In probability theory and statistics, Bayes’ theorem (alternatively Bayes’ law or Bayes' rule) describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event." 

In genetics researchers are attempting to match individuals to their ancestry based on the genetic profile they carry in their genes. Researchers have identified a set of particular mtDNA and Y_Chromosome haplogroups that are carried by the four major populations: Sub-Saharan Africans, Western and Eastern Eurasian, and Native Americans.

When people take a genetics test they often self identify the population they belong too. Today, researchers can identify an individual's ancestry by examining single nucleotide polymorphisms or SNPs. The pattern of SNPs in an individual's genome  indicates a person's ancestry.

If the pattern of ones SNPs can indicate an individual's ancestry (and ethnicity), using Bayes’ theorem, a person’s ethnicity can be used to more accurately assess the probability that they carry a particular haplogroup, compared to the assessment of the probability of an individual's ancestry made without knowledge of the person's ethnicity.

Admixture and Structure programs assume that their are four pristine ethnic population or races: Sub-Saharan African, Western Eurasian (Sub-clade in Middle East), Eastern Eurasian and Native American. Because these races are considered pristine, each population is assigned a specific set of haplogroups, e.g., SSA population mtDNA belong to L haplogroups and Y-DNA is A and E. The problem with these assumptions is that SSA carry all the haplogroups associated with the Eurasians and Native Americans. Due to this, geneticist have to mask selected genes so they can get the results they want.

Bayes Law mathematically is the following equation:


Where A and B are the probabilities of observing A and B without regard to each other.
P(A\B), a conditional probability is the probability of observing event A given that B is true.
P(B\A) is the probability of observing event B given that A is true.

If we apply this to genetic ancestry and admixture testing we have the following equation:

P(ethnicity\SNPs) is a conditional probability it the probability of observing that the ethnicity (of individuals) (A) x SNPs (B) = individual’s P(ethnicity\SNPs) is a conditional probability it the probability of observing that the ethnicity (of individuals) (A) x SNPs (B) = an individual’s haplogroup or membership in a population is true.

P(SNPs\ethnicity) is the probability of observing that given SNPs x ethnicity= an individual’s haplogroup/ancestral component as a member of a given population is true.

The equation might fail in determining the admixture between SSAs and Eurasians, because Africans carry all the genes found among Eurasians.

As a result, using Bayesian statistics in admixture programs may provide invalid results, because P(ethnicity \SNPs) does not accurately predict the ancestral components carried by SSAs because we carry ancestral components carried by Eurasians and Native Americans.

We carry these haplogroups because Africans were the first anatomically modern humans to migrant into Eurasia and the Americas carrying these genes.